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Markets likely to make flat to positive start amid positive global cues
Jun-30-2025

Indian equity markets are likely to make flat to positive start on Monday, tracking positive global cues as traders are optimistic over the US-China trade deal. Besides, fund inflows by Foreign Institutional Investors may boost investors' sentiments. However, traders are likely to adopt wait-and-watch approach ahead of India’s May industrial and manufacturing production data.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India records $13.5 billion current account surplus in Q4FY25: India’s current account balance recorded a surplus of $13.5 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) in January-March quarter of 2024-25 as compared with $4.6 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in the year-ago period.

Jaishankar begins 3-day visit to US: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will embark on a three-day visit to the US on June 30, 2025, to participate in a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Quad grouping that will focus on new proposals to advance a common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Forex reserves decline by $1 billion to $697.93 billion: The Reserve Bank of India said that India's forex reserves dropped by $1.01 billion to $697.93 billion for the week ended June 20. 

India's foreign debt jumps 10% to $736.3 billion: The Reserve Bank said that India's external debt increased by 10 per cent to $736.3 billion at the end of March 2025 compared to $668.8 billion in the year-ago period. 

Sugar stocks will be in focus: Crisil Ratings in its report has said that India's gross sugar production is likely to rise 15 per cent in sugar season 2026 to about 35 million tonnes, aided by above-average monsoon, boosting cane acreage and yields in key sugar-producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.

On the global front: The U.S. markets ended in green on Friday, after President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. had signed an agreement with China.  Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday, after Japan’s top negotiator extended his stay in the US for further trade talks ahead of a July 9 deadline.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks advanced for the fourth straight session on Friday, supported by buying in blue-chips Asian Paints and Ultratech Cement amid fresh foreign fund inflows. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 303.03 points or 0.36% to 84,058.90 and the CNX Nifty was up by 88.80 points or 0.35% to 25,637.80.       

Some of the important factors in trade:

Sales of listed manufacturing companies rise 6% in FY25: Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent data showed that the sales of listed manufacturing sector companies grew by 6% during 2024-25 as compared to 3.5% growth in the preceding year, led by automobiles, electrical machinery, food and beverages, and pharmaceuticals industries. 

India progressing rapidly; now becomes fourth largest economy in world: Union Minister of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare and Rural Development Shivraj Singh Chouhan has said that under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the country is progressing rapidly. He also noted that India has now become the fourth largest economy in the world. 

All banks should bring down lending rates for speedy transmission of policy rate: An article published in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June Bulletin has said that all banks should bring down their lending rates for speedy transmission of the policy rate, which was lowered by 50 basis points earlier this month.

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