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Sensex, Nifty trade lower in cautious trade amid India-US trade negotiations
Jun-30-2025

Indian equity benchmarks made a cautious start on the last trading day of June, amid ongoing trade talks between India and the US in Washington. As per a private report, India’s trade team has extended its stay in Washington to iron out differences as the two sides look to clinch a deal before a July 9 deadline when higher US tariffs are set to kick in. Soon, Sensex and Nifty slipped below neutral lines and are trading lower with marginal cut in early deals. Some pessimism came as the Reserve Bank said that India's external debt increased by 10 per cent to $736.3 billion at the end of March 2025 compared to $668.8 billion in the year-ago period. Also, India's forex reserves dropped by $1.01 billion to $697.93 billion for the week ended June 20. Moreover, investors avoided to take risk ahead of India's May Industrial Production data to be out later in the day. 

On the global front, Asian markets are trading mostly higher following broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday, amid renewed optimism about new trade deals after US President Donald Trump indicated he does not think he will need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to secure trade deals with the US. Besides, the ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in May.

Back home, sugar stocks are in focus as Crisil Ratings in its report said that India's gross sugar production is likely to rise 15 per cent in sugar season 2026 to about 35 million tonnes, aided by above-average monsoon, boosting cane acreage and yields in key sugar-producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. In stock specific developments, Torrent Pharma and JB Chemicals are in focus after Torrent Pharma signed definitive agreements with global investment firm KKR to acquire a controlling stake in JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals. The deal values JB Pharma at an equity valuation of Rs 25,689 crore.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 83813.65, down by 245.25 points or 0.29% after trading in a range of 83800.87 and 84099.53. There were 9 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.18%, while Small cap index was up by 0.63%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Industrials up by 0.67%, Capital Goods up by 0.56%, PSU up by 0.39%, Healthcare up by 0.30% and Oil & Gas up by 0.19%, while Realty down by 0.66%, Telecom down by 0.57%, Utilities down by 0.55%, TECK down by 0.53% and Power down by 0.41% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were SBI up by 0.89%, Larsen & Toubro up by 0.89%, Eternal up by 0.55%, Sun Pharma up by 0.33% and Hindustan Unilever up by 0.26%. On the flip side, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 1.20%, NTPC down by 1.02%, Power Grid down by 0.95%, Bharti Airtel down by 0.83% and Infosys down by 0.76% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest report ‘India’s Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2024-25’ has said that the country posted a current account surplus of $13.5 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP in March quarter 2024-25 (Q4FY25) as compared with $4.6 billion in the year-ago period mainly on account of surge in services exports and higher remittances. While, it was a deficit of $11.3 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2024-25. However, on annual basis, the current account was in deficit at $23.3 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) during 2024-25. 

It said merchandise trade deficit at $59.5 billion in Q4:2024-25 was higher than $52 billion in Q4:2023-24. However, it moderated from $79.3 billion in Q3:2024-25. Net services receipts increased to $53.3 billion in Q4:2024-25 from $42.7 billion a year ago. Services exports have risen on a y-o-y basis in major categories such as business services and computer services. Personal transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, rose to $33.9 billion in Q4:2024-25 from $31.3 billion in Q4:2023-24. It further said the net outgo on the primary income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, moderated to $11.9 billion in Q4:2024-25 from $14.8 billion in Q4:2023-24.

In the financial account, foreign direct investment (FDI) recorded a net inflow of $400 million in Q4:2024-25 as compared to an inflow of $2.3 billion in the corresponding period of 2023-24. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) recorded a net outflow of $5.9 billion in Q4:2024-25 as against a net inflow of $11.4 billion in Q4:2023-24. There was an accretion of $8.8 billion to the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis) in Q4:2024-25 as compared to an accretion of $30.8 billion in Q4:2023-24.

On Balance of Payments (BoP) during 2024-25, RBI said India’s current account deficit at $23.3 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) during 2024-25 was lower than $26 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) during 2023-24, primarily due to higher net invisibles receipts. Net inflow under FDI at $1 billion during 2024-25 was lower than $10.2 billion during 2023-24. During 2024-25, FPI recorded a net inflow of $3.6 billion, lower than $44.1 billion a year ago. Balance of Payments is an indicator of the country’s external payment scenario.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 25563.75, down by 74.05 points or 0.29% after trading in a range of 25559.75 and 25669.35. There were 19 stocks advancing against 31 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were JIO Financial Services up by 1.39%, SBI up by 0.92%, Eternal up by 0.82%, Shriram Finance up by 0.75% and Larsen & Toubro up by 0.65%. On the flip side, Hero MotoCorp down by 2.06%, Tata Consumer Products down by 1.57%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 1.35%, Dr. Reddy's Lab down by 1.29% and NTPC down by 1.23% were the top losers.

Asian markets are trading mostly in green; Nikkei 225 surged 573.43 points or 1.41% to 40,724.22, Jakarta Composite rose 25.08 points or 0.36% to 6,922.48, KOSPI increased 24.53 points or 0.8% to 3,080.47, Shanghai Composite strengthened 6.95 points or 0.2% to 3,431.18 and Straits Times was up by 1.16 points or 0.03% to 3,967.36. On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted lost 140.76 points or 0.63% to 22,439.32 and Hang Seng was down by 122.11 points or 0.51% to 24,162.04.
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